Planning Water Resources Systems under Uncertainty Using an Interval-Fuzzy De Novo Programming Method

Abstract

This study presents an interval-fuzzy De Novo programming (IFDNP) method for planning water-resources-management systems under uncertainty. IFDNP is derived by incorporating the concepts of interval parameters and fuzzy sets within a De Novo programming framework. IFDNP has the advantages in constructing optimal system design through introducing the flexibility into the available resources in the model’s constraints. Moreover, IFDNP allows the decision makers to achieve a metaoptimal system performance and improve the performance of compromise solutions, and it is effective for dealing with the system design problems involving multiple objectives and multiple uncertainties. The IFDNP is then applied to a case study of designing an inexact optimal system with budget limit for water resources management and planning. Various scenarios that are associated with different levels of economic implication consequences and water allocation patterns under uncertainty are analyzed. Results can help decision makers to evaluate alternatives of system designs and to determine which of these designs can most efficiently achieve the desired economic objective constrained by limited resources.

Keywords: De Novo programming, fuzzy sets, interval analysis, multiobjective, planning, water resources systems